Climate Change Skeptics: hee hee!

Back in November 2k6, I wrote my “Now we have won” post saying that the public landscape of ideas has changed, and that the Iraq war is now seen as an endless failure, and anthropogenic climate change is accepted as happening. (There were some stoushy comments that led to a followup “No, seriously!” post.)
That post was when i thought we’d hit tipping point. Some might say I was too early or too late, but it seems impossible to deny that we’ve tipped somewhere along the line.
The example that got me today was featured in the DomPost, sourced from the Washington Post – an article about climate change sceptics that gives them all the credibility of the Keystone Kops:

While the IPCC enlisted several hundred scientists from more than 100 countries to work over five years to produce its series of reports, the NIPCC document is the work of 23 authors from 15 nations, some of them not scientists.

or even:

Gene Karpinski, president of the League of Conservation Voters, said he was not surprised that roughly 500 participants had gathered at the meeting. “I’m sure that the flat Earth society had a few final meetings before they broke up.”

This article simply wouldn’t have been printable a couple years ago. Thank heavens we’re over that nonsense.
(The DomPost version takes note of the fact that some of NZ’s own Clown Skeptics, Vincent Gray among them, made the pilgrimage.)

What We Are Worth (per Monbiot)

This one’s been sitting in my bookmarks for a while, waiting for me to get around to blogging it. It’s worth waiting for. It isn’t often I read something that really shakes me, and this more than fit the bill.
Back on 19 feb, George Monbiot wrote about how costs are balanced in environmental accounting. His starting point was the crucial Stern Report, a document that joined with the IPCC findings to finally tip the balance on whether action is needed to stem climate change:

Sir Nicholas Stern… showed that stopping runaway climate change would cost less than failing to prevent it. But… few people bothered to find out how he had achieved this result. It took me a while, but by the time I reached the end [of his report] I was horrified.

Monbiot identifies problems with the way Stern measures the costs of climate change. All kinds of destruction, disruption, displacement and death are turned into a money figure: they are considered as “a reduction in consumption” equivalent to $30 per tonne of carbon.
Suddenly, as Monbiot observes, you are able to weigh up the cost of environmental destruction and human life as entries on a balance sheet. Sure enough, the UK govt’s argument to expand Heathrow airport follows this precedent. As Monbiot summarises:

The government claims that building a third runway will reduce delays, on average, by three minutes. This saving is costed at €38-49 per passenger per hour. The price is a function of the average net wages of travellers: the more you earn, the more the delays are deemed to cost you, even if you are on holiday.

This is the sort of logic that sits behind much public decisionmaking. On the one hand, Stern conscientiously evaluates human misery and death as a component of ‘reduction in consumption’; on the other hand, a City Executive whose plane is delayed is deemed to have its own social cost.
I should say, I don’t have a problem with the methodology in principle. Unlike Monbiot, weighing up human life in dollar terms doesn’t shock me; health funders and automobile manufacturers have to do the same thing all the time. What shocks me is the way in which these prices are set. The most cautious figures are used to call the devastation of our planetary ecosystem a ‘reduction in consumption’ – but somehow the most generous assessments are given to the cost to society of an exec stuck waiting for his plane another hour. And perhaps that’s enough to sink this methodology. The translation of non-monetary values into financial ones will always be so tentative and subjective and responsive to the biases of those performing the translation that the most hideous results are inevitable. And on this basis, the decisions are made that determine whether our planet is trapped into a horrible future. (Or for a Dubtown parallel – the decision to press ahead on the Wellington Bypass surely owed a lot to exactly this kind of accounting.)
Go read the article. Monbiot is always incredible, and this is a superb example of his writing at its pithy, excellent best. I was lucky enough to see him talking at the G8 in July ’05, and he’s going to be videocasting a talk to Wellington this Saturday morning for Writers and Readers Week. Perhaps my favourite Monbiot article of all time is Fallen Fruit, about why apples in the UK aren’t as nice as they used to be. (That one was even better with the photos.)

Gaza: Something You Can Do

I haven’t been blogging much on the middle east lately, but I’ve been following the news threads as solidly as ever. The latest violence in Gaza is worrying. Only a week ago it was a peaceful protest against an economic blockade; now there’s been escalation and invasion, and civilians are dying. This is all the more concerning because it is out of step with what ordinary Israelis want, according to this Haaretz account that says most Israelis support ceasefire talks with Hamas.
If this concerns you as well, here’s something you can do right now: sign the Avaaz petition.
Out of all the organisations I’ve seen trying to turn online presence into real-world influence, Avaaz is easily the strongest and most successful. They essential work through online word-of-mouth, like this, to push very targetted issue-specific petitions. Their first big one was to the 2007 G8 about global warming, and since then they’ve kept an eye on numerous human rights and climate change issues. They do good work and are the best channel I’m aware of for turning your concern at your computer screen into something that key decisionmakers will actually see.
At the petition page you can see how many have signed, as the bar creeps toward their target. The petition will be delivered to the Israeli government and to Hamas to call for an immediate ceasefire. It’s something.

About That Tagging Thing

So the election season has rolled on, with the first big electoral policy initiative out of the incumbent Labour govt being war on taggers.
Obviously this is an image-correction maneuver by Clark. The electorate are sick of tagging, so it is valuable to be seen to be doing something. But a lot of people have missed that the new law is really intended for adult offenders; youth who tag are going to be dealt with exactly the same way (see the FAQ at the bottom of the press release for more).
The big impact on the kids is going to be restrictions on the sale of spray cans to teens. Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of such a restriction, it just doesn’t sound very effective in the face of an army of disenfranchised 13-year-olds with marker pens, older cousins and nothing to do with their time. Still, the FAQ has an answer to that:

It has been suggested that spray paint taggers will all start scratching glass or using marker pens. However, tagging has its own internal boundaries and ‘culture’. As spray paint is the chosen tool of this ‘culture’ it is expected that the movement to other types of graffiti implement will be small and we would expect to see an overall reduction in graffiti.

Heck, it could work. Tagging doesn’t have deep roots in this country anyway.
Overall it doesn’t seem to me like much change is possible from this legislation. It’s certainly not an important social problem. (Don’t get me started on that Broken Windows nonsense. And no, tagging is not a gateway crime. The taggers of today don’t become the home invaders of tomorrow.) No doubt some policy wonk has worked hard on it, but ultimately it just amounts to a flag in the ground saying Labour is not surrendering middle NZ without a fight.
Anyway. I’ve had a few interesting conversations about this recently. Tagging as an activity has always sat uneasily with me. Full-fledged graf art, I have a lot of love for that. Witty and weird little slogans scrawled in public places are a bonus in our urban landscape. Tagging, the runty little sideshow of graffiti, has never won me over. It isn’t the act itself that bugs me, but the thoughtless aesthetic placement of so much tagging. I mean, tagging some suburban garage? Tagging the side of a white suburban house? This doltish placement has always annoyed me. But the aesthetics of graffiti and tagging are subjective. Does graffiti add value or subtract value to an environment? Well, that depends on the graffiti, the environment, and the person. It’s an impossible equation.
It gets even curlier when you start talking about rights. Do suburban house owners have the right to a crisp, clean garage? Really? What are such property rights built on? Aren’t all such rights dependent on having a fair society which values all its members? Where does value even come from in our society? Do we have the right to clean walls?
I’m very wary of romanticising wall-scrawling. There’s some incredible stuff that happens through words and art on our streets – does anyone know what the “Gayskins” tag that turned up all over town late last year means? – but also there’s a bunch of selfish people who lack any empathy for those who have to cope with their actions.
End result, I guess: Labour’s big public stand is pandering to the talkback masses and that doesn’t make me happy. (Let’s not forget that this comes on the heels of a boy being murdered for tagging and the disgraceful way in which many elected leaders responded.) But if teens end up having trouble buying spray cans by themselves, well, that’s not going to cause me to lose any sleep over damaged civil rights.
Keith Ng has a good piece on the War on Taggers over at Public Address

Bringing It On!

Chris Sims has swapped out face-kicking for high-kicking because it’s Bring It On Week over at the ISB! If you, like me, have some sneaking (or not-so-sneaking) affection for the best race-relations cheerleader movie ever*, then get on over there for the stick-figure action and way more cheer-puns than you ever want to see.
But this is a blog with pretensions to social relevance, and that means my contribution to Bring It On week is obliged to harsh your high. Check it: one of these things is not like the other:




* No, Revenge of the Cheerleaders doesn’t count, no matter how many full-frontal Hoff shots it contains.

Castro Quits

Well, how about that.
He’s been sitting in the top job almost 50 years. Smart money was on him staying there until he died, I would have thought. Guess not.
Random association: watched the Fog of War doco the other day, about Robert McNamara. The Cuban Missile Crisis was discussed, and McNamara told an anecdote about sitting down with Castro and hearing that there were already nuclear missiles in Cuba, and that Castro had asked Khruschev to launch them at the US, knowing full well that Cuba would be destroyed as a result. McNamara’s eyes boggled as he told this story. He said Castro explained himself only by saying, “If it had been you in my position, you would have done exactly the same.”
Anyone reading this been to Cuba? Impressions?

Chocolate Blonde

I’m one of the many, many people who’ve pretty much abandoned TV to get my fix straight off the Digital Video Disc. Side effect: when I am in front of the box, the advertisements are even harder to ignore than normal.
This might be why it’s taken me until now to notice that in Cadbury’s chocolate world, all the happy brown-skinned people are actually white people. See for yourself. All that platinum white-boy hair.
And now that I’ve noticed, it bugs me. They don’t make ’em like they used to, that’s for sure…
( Also bugging me is this Aussie advertising disguised as a teaching resource.)

Feb 10: Anon vs Lron

One of the more fascinating things going on webwards right now is the Anonymous vs. Scientology war. In a nutshell: anonymous hacker network wages PR and tech war on Church of Scientology. Their infoclearinghouse is at Xenu.net, you’re one-stop shop for creepy truths about scientology.
The opening salvo was a massive denial-of-service attack on Scientology servers (where you overload them with fake traffic so they can’t handle legit traffic), and the next big moment was today, Feb 10, a global day of in-person action outside Scientology offices.
Project Chanology has the scoop. Very small demos happened at Christchurch and Auckland, according to this page; other parts of the world are still waiting for the designated time to arrive as I write.
This is fascinating on lots of levels. One of them that appeals to me is how the Anonymous collective is perhaps the only organisation really capable of attacking Scientology. The Church of Scientology has some scary-smart people running its operations, and they are very skilled at making end-runs around legal systems and outmaneuvering attacks that come through normal channels. Some countries have had successes but it’s just plain hard to go for the throat – the Church of Scientology people have a long track record of very intimidating responses to unfriendly coverage by journalists, in particular.
Anonymous, however, isn’t reachable by any of the means the CoS can usually deploy. It isn’t a real organisation; it really is just a really big network of anonymous geek dudes. And that’s anonymous to each other as well – there are no real identities in play here. It is a group with no hierarchy, no structure, no social links, no membership. It is almost an anti-group.
The flipside of this, of course, is that Anonymous is so loose and amorphous that it’s hard for it to turn itself to real action. The Feb 10 demos are a case in point. In less than 24 hours it’ll be apparent whether Anon is a real force or just a worthy attempt; either way, there are big signs of the future to be read in what happens.
I hope Anon pulls it off, though I doubt they’ll manage much. Scientology is very, very screwed up and anything that starts hammering away at that is fine by me. (Also, Tom Cruise is gay, and his attempts to change his orientation led him to Scientology where he has convinced himself he is in fact straight. Doesn’t that explain pretty much everything about that guy?)
EDIT: pics are up from Sydney
EDIT 2: Account of London demo. Five hundred people? Whitechapel’s discussion thread is all worth a look actually.