I predict that the stupid academy will do this:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx – RAY
(because… he’s playing a famous dead person! who was blind! and the dead person said it was good before he died! you’re not gonna argue with a dead man are ya?)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
(possible surprise for Alan Alda, but I’m backing Freeman, even though he’s playing the same damn narrator character he always plays. Actually, that’s the best reason there is to pick him.)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
(It’s gonna be her or Bening, and Bening has the stink of a loser on her, which the Academy can smell a mile off. The Academy like Kate Winslet but they’re waiting for her to put some distance from Titanic before they start looking at her – Jim Cameron’s ‘King of the World’ still rankles. No Leo gong for the same reason.)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – THE AVIATOR
(always a hard one. traditionally goes to The New Girl, but I’ve got to back Cate – she not only delivered a great, effective, real performance that transcended its mannerisms, she did it about a Hollywood star. The Academy loves itself above all else.)
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
SHARK TALE
(okay okay I’m kidding THE INCREDIBLES give me a break)
ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR
(also a tricky one. now that the LOTR behemoth is gone, it’s an open field. Aviator’s AD was actually damn good, but I think it’ll get it because it’s the movie most of the Academy will have actually bothered to watch.)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR
(only Flying Daggers can match it, and the subtitle thing is still a killer)
COSTUME DESIGN
RAY
(call it a hunch)
DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR
(FINally they don’t have an excuse not to)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
SUPER SIZE ME
(it’s the one everyone saw and everyone liked and it has brought about tangible change)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Don’t know any of the nominees, but I hope Plympton wins the animated and Two Cars wins the live-action.
FILM EDITING
COLLATERAL (not sure on this one, but Mann is cool)
MAKEUP
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
(so. much. blood.)
MUSIC (SCORE)
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
(again, call it a hunch)
MUSIC (SONG)
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH
(This award makes my brain weep salty neurochemical tears. I’m gonna pick ‘Accidentally in Love’ from Shrek 2 because it is the movie the Academy actually saw.)
BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR
(it’s marty’s year, baby)
SOUND MIXING
RAY
(because… it’s about music and that!)
SOUND EDITING
THE INCREDIBLES
(because I have no idea. just because.)
VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2
(slim pickings in this category this year)
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS
(and what the hell is Before Sunset doing in this category??)
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE AVIATOR
(possible surprise outcome: THE INCREDIBLES)