Although this week has been quiet for Iran-is-a-threat-to-world-peace stuff, I’m thinking about it again because I’m reading several books on Iran.
My take on Iran: the public is being sold on the severity of the situation as part of a general move by Israel/the US to get the UN, the EU and the world to isolate Iran.
The strategy is not to actually start another war – there is no resource to invade and conquer Iran, and Iran’s not in a position to move outside its borders – but to create a diplomatic situation that will allow Israel to conduct a bombing campaign on Iran without censure from the rest of the world.
Israel is champing at the bit to do this, and they know there’s not a thing Iran can do to stop them or retaliate against them. But the diplomatic costs would be huge, still. A bit more fearmongering around Iran is necessary before this option really becomes viable.
Whether or not any offensive action actually emerges is still up in the air. The US, holding Israel’s leash, will wait and see.
4 thoughts on “I Explain Iran”
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Do you have any evidence for your take on this or have you just bought into the anti US/Israel propaganda?
A harsh question I know, but your claim is pretty big. It might be true, but, then again, it might not. Or the truth might lie somewhere in the middle.
Basically I want to what you base your opinion on.
Mostly it’s just a best-guess sort of thing.
I think it’s uncontroversial that Israel is on the table for a strategic strike to remove Iran’s potential nuclear capability. They want to be the only nuclear player in the region, and are terrified that Iran might one day decide to follow through on its leader’s threats. It’s a real and valid security concern for them.
It’s also uncontroversial, I think, that the US wants to stop Iran from being a dominant player in the region. Its new Iraq is supposed to be the powerhouse, not Iran.
The threat of nuclear weapons being developed in Iran is real, but not enormous. At the moment everything Iran is doing is perfectly legal, and concerns can be met within the realms of legal inspection and negotiation etc etc. The US is blatantly pushing a propaganda line that is bigger than this, setting up Iran as the big new threat.
But the US is completely bogged down in Iraq. So why is it talking up war when it can’t follow through? In the post is my best guess at an answer.
I think you’re on the money. Look back at how the US and UK built the conditions for action in Afghanistan and Iraq. They started on Iran some time ago in the same way.
They most certainly are creating the conditions where if someone were to bomb Iran no everyman on the street in the West would be too perturbed. Israel would be the obvious candidate though US aircraft in Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan or on ships in the Gulf are equally capable militarily if not politically to do the job.
Frustratingly Iran has made the job easier by electing someone it is easier to demonize than Rafsanjani.
It must be frustrating for old-time UK diplomats, who for years had tried to cultivate links with Damascus and Tehran. But the political climate has changed.
What I’m wondering is what page is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on when he denies the holocaust and says he wants Israel wiped off the map? Is he goading Israel, saying “Come on, do it, I dare you”? Is he playing patsy? Is he genuinely a stupid hick, like he appears to be? Or does he know something the rest of us don’t?
‘Cause as much as Israel is clearly gagging for it, Ahmadinejad gives the impression that he’d like nothing better than to get his whole country killed.