Climate change at STS forum

On 20 November I went along to see the dean of the science fac here at VUW, Prof. David Bibby, speak about his visit to the Science and Technology Forum in Kyoto and the climate change discussion there.
Some notes from what he reported:

• No debate whatsoever about whether climate change was real and caused by human activity. 2 degrees of warming was seen as guaranteed, again without dispute.
• Needs to be a complete systems change to bring about deep, deep cuts in carbon emissions. The upcoming (2009) Copenhagen conference was seen as the crucial moment by delegates.
• Nuclear power was talked about as a done deal by delegates – there was no discussion, it is seen as necessary for baseload power. This means there needs to be massive reinvestment in this technology. (I find myself oddly sanguine about the potential shift to nuclear – my perception of the risks and damage of nuclear power is unchanged, but it is now very clear that conventional power generation is even riskier and more damaging.)
• Carbon capture technology was seen as about 20+ years away from viability, tidal and 2nd gen biofuels tech about 10-20 years away, but wind, photovoltaic etc sources are available and viable now
• Related: there is a serious choke point coming where we have to stop using current tech but switchover to new tech is incomplete – seen to be about 2030 to 2050. This will be a rough time.
• A key issue will be poverty, which will skyrocket as oil price rises make food expensive, exacerbated by first-gen biofuels which also drive up food price
• Disease will be another key issue – tropical diseases will invade the temperate world, but almost all medical drugs are for temperate-world diseases because that is where the research/development money has been over the years. (Basically, our failure to distribute our medical expertise evenly around the world is about to bite us in the arse.)

(check out the STS final statement here – it’s a small pdf)
The STS recommendations don’t carry any particular weight – basically they feed into the general conversation. Still, it is encouraging that heavyweights in the science and tech fields are united around the need for radical changes to enable environmental security. (Also, kinda scary.)