Day: October 28, 2004

Let me put my political assessment reputation on the line.
Kerry will win. It won’t be a landslide, but it will be a clearcut win with about 5 percentage points separating him from Bush in the popular vote (not that the popular vote decides the election, of course).
All polls are flawed. We all know this. They are never going to give a perfect picture. And I am confident that, in this situation, in this particular race, with this future at stake, the picture they are giving is disguising the lead the Democrats have.
The polls show a lot of undecideds. The majority of undecideds will go for Kerry.
One big reason people are undecided in this, the single most important election in the world in decades, is that the media keeps telling them that Bush is their man. But the man himself doesn’t convince. They can’t figure out what to listen to – the voices on the air, or the voice in their head. In the end, they’ll listen to the voice in their head.
The polls show a solid one percent of Nader voters. At least a quarter, probably half, of these will vote for Kerry.
For a change, this isn’t an election between two parties which are alike in all but fine details, and which exaggerate their difference to give an illusion of “right” vs “left”. This is an election between democracy and not-democracy.
There is too much at stake. At the moment of truth in the voting booth, they’ll hold their nose and recognise that.
Polls always under-represent young voters. The vast majority of young voters are going to vote for Kerry.
Eminem, the biggest name in music that no-one can call a sell-out, has released his song Mosh. Mosh is a ‘get out the vote’ song. The difference is, it comes from someone credible. This matters. The video is worth seeing and thinking about – it speaks to collective action, it ties the election to a range of injustices both current and historical, it is determinedly macho to the point of militancy.
And, of course, Howard Stern, the biggest name in US radio, with a big devoted audience among yer average frat boy yahoos, has been relentlessly hounding Bush for months. As some dude on the web muses, “could this go down in history as the election decided by eminem and Howard Stern?
Polls always under-represent minority voters. The vast majority of minority voters are going to vote for Kerry.
Remember Fahrenheit 9/11? Every black voter in the US will remember it, and the message it delivered. The black communities of the US may, if they’re at all sensible, have issues with the Dems – but the GOP is the enemy, and they all know they’re in a war. The other minority communities are the same. Even Andrew frikkin’ Sullivan is going to tick for Kerry-Edwards, because his gay identity trumps his sickening sycophancy to the lies and fabrications of the Bush administration.
Young people and minority communities are going to turn up to vote in greater numbers than have been seen in decades.
These are the same people not turning up in polls. They will turn up and they will make it the day the Bush administration falls.
This is my prediction. Kerry will win. The win will be beyond the reach of the biggest shenanigans Bushco can pull. (And they’ll try anything – missing Florida ballots anyone?)
See if I’m wrong.

I am actually back in Scotland now. No longer in Ireland. And there’s loads to do, especially a big Halloween RPG thing that Steve, Brian and I are pulling together and that looks like it’ll be quite spooky indeed.
Apparently Cork is a flooded disaster area all of a sudden. Yike! It was sunny when we were there (mostly)!
Um, it’s late so I’m going to go to bed now.
————
BTW, I’m somewhat unnerved by the number of lefty columnists who are giving good odds that Osama will be arrested on Saturday. An October Surprise is one thing, but this – this stretches credulity too far. It requires belief not just in the unfettered mendaciousness of the Bush administration, but also a certain minimum level of competence of same. Competency? Doesn’t really fit with their track record, does it?