Let me put my political assessment reputation on the line.
Kerry will win. It won’t be a landslide, but it will be a clearcut win with about 5 percentage points separating him from Bush in the popular vote (not that the popular vote decides the election, of course).
All polls are flawed. We all know this. They are never going to give a perfect picture. And I am confident that, in this situation, in this particular race, with this future at stake, the picture they are giving is disguising the lead the Democrats have.
The polls show a lot of undecideds. The majority of undecideds will go for Kerry.
One big reason people are undecided in this, the single most important election in the world in decades, is that the media keeps telling them that Bush is their man. But the man himself doesn’t convince. They can’t figure out what to listen to – the voices on the air, or the voice in their head. In the end, they’ll listen to the voice in their head.
The polls show a solid one percent of Nader voters. At least a quarter, probably half, of these will vote for Kerry.
For a change, this isn’t an election between two parties which are alike in all but fine details, and which exaggerate their difference to give an illusion of “right” vs “left”. This is an election between democracy and not-democracy.
There is too much at stake. At the moment of truth in the voting booth, they’ll hold their nose and recognise that.
Polls always under-represent young voters. The vast majority of young voters are going to vote for Kerry.
Eminem, the biggest name in music that no-one can call a sell-out, has released his song Mosh. Mosh is a ‘get out the vote’ song. The difference is, it comes from someone credible. This matters. The video is worth seeing and thinking about – it speaks to collective action, it ties the election to a range of injustices both current and historical, it is determinedly macho to the point of militancy.
And, of course, Howard Stern, the biggest name in US radio, with a big devoted audience among yer average frat boy yahoos, has been relentlessly hounding Bush for months. As some dude on the web muses, “could this go down in history as the election decided by eminem and Howard Stern?
Polls always under-represent minority voters. The vast majority of minority voters are going to vote for Kerry.
Remember Fahrenheit 9/11? Every black voter in the US will remember it, and the message it delivered. The black communities of the US may, if they’re at all sensible, have issues with the Dems – but the GOP is the enemy, and they all know they’re in a war. The other minority communities are the same. Even Andrew frikkin’ Sullivan is going to tick for Kerry-Edwards, because his gay identity trumps his sickening sycophancy to the lies and fabrications of the Bush administration.
Young people and minority communities are going to turn up to vote in greater numbers than have been seen in decades.
These are the same people not turning up in polls. They will turn up and they will make it the day the Bush administration falls.
This is my prediction. Kerry will win. The win will be beyond the reach of the biggest shenanigans Bushco can pull. (And they’ll try anything – missing Florida ballots anyone?)
See if I’m wrong.
15 thoughts on “[Election] Kerry Will Win”
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I hope you’re right, Morgan, I really do.
But I’m not holding my breath…
Kerry will win the vote and the election in 2004. But remember that Gore won in 2000.
The lawyers are already circling, the court cases are being foreshadowed already. And, ulitmately, the US Supreme Court is still dominated by Dubya’s daddy’s friends.
Also Fox and Murdoch’s other media outlets are still dominating the media. They may not be convincing the voters now, but don’t forget how important it was in 2000 when Fox declared Bush the winner – before Florida was anywhere near decided.
Kerry will get more votes. He will probably win on the night, in the first count. But I fear that he will not be *declared* the winner by the media and, again, the Supreme Court will do what it needs to do to ensure that the next President is going to appoint the right people to replace those near retirement.
I hope I’m wrong, but y’know…
Kerry won in Wellington. I predict America will follow Wellington. Except in their case, it’ll be a good thing.
Besides, Hunter S. Thompson has predicted Kerry as the winner and – more to the point – Bush as the loser. Only a fool would contradict Hunter. A fool or someone who likes the taste of Mace.
Of course if Bush were to win, at least the end of the American empire within the next decade would be assured. Provided the world lived that long.
Bush will win… corporate America has too much invested in him for him to lose… and even if those marginal voters do turn out to support Kerry, they’ll find som way to discount the votes as they did in Florida.
But hey… you don’t think there’s a real difference in programme between the Republicans and the Democrats do you? It’s all in the owrds they use and the dabbling they do around the edges… Bush cuts welfare, Kerry would re-instate some programmes and review others, and a few people might be better off for a while until the next republican government and the next round of cuts. None of them is going to do anything really fundamental, like free healthcare or free childcare or quality free legal advice or gun control or extra funding for schools or… whatever. They just aren’t… it’s all done with spin and mirrors to make people think they have areal choice when actually they don’t.
Feeling a tad cynical today!
Yeah that’s true about Dems and Reps being much the same, but at least a few countries outside of AmeriKKKa will be slightly safer from the threat of liberation with Kerry as Prez.
As a comparison I actually think Labour & National are slices of the same pie, but that doesn’t mean I think things wouldn’t be worse under The Brash Don.
Warren Beatty for President!
There was a Naomi Klein article in which she was complaining about Kerry to a friend — all the ways in which he’s just as bad as GWB — and her friend said, ‘At least he believes in evolution.’
It’s not a lot to aim for, but it’s something.
Dems and Reps are largely the same, yes indeed.
But this Republican administration is so out of line with normality that that doesn’t apply any more. I truly believe that, if given a mandate for four more years, the Bush administration will continue to fuck up the world on a truly staggering scale at an astonishing pace.
This is a special case election. History will look back on this Bush administration and wonder how it could have happened.
I hope your right Morgue.
But I find it hard to believe. I have some American friends here. they are *good people*, intelligent, well educated people (one has a PhD the other a masters), but they’ll vote for Bush.
Why? Because Clinton bankrupt the country and they haven’t forgiven the democrats for that. It’s got nothing to do with the war. It’s because Bush will put money in thier pockets. Of course they don’t say it like that, but that’s the guts of it.
They watched bowling for columbine and hated it.
You have to understand how patriotism works in America (not that I claim to understand it but here’s my insight anyway). A patriot does not run down his country and his president even if they are patently wrong. To run them down would be unpatriotic.
I can’t understand it, but I am seeing it up close in the lives of these people, people who I love vewry dearly, but in this I really don’t understand them.
Likewise, I hope you’re right, but somehow I don’t think it’ll play that way. I think we’re seeing a re-run of the mid-terms, and the Republicans are going to romp home. It’s hard to knock an incumbent off at the best of times, and this is compounded by the zeitgeist favouring a retention of the status quo.
I’m another person who hopes Kerry wins, but fears Bush will. As people have said, he didn’t win last time, but he’s still there four years later. I can’t forget hanging chads, dodgy electronic voting machines, disenfranhisement of people who aren’t the right class/colour/political belief. If the repubs were that desperate last time, what about now when they want to complete their project? Why stop when there is another term on the line. Fortunately, the pax Americana isn’t remotely sustainable in it’s current form, unfortunately it might take us with it.
“Because Clinton bankrupt the country and they haven’t forgiven the democrats for that.”
What!? When?
All of you are wise. But I stand by my prediction. I kinda got to, now 🙂 We’ll see in a day or two.
I note that Osama wasn’t caught on Saturday. Stupid liberal blogs!
Ah, but Osama did manage to pull an “October surprise” in good time, nonetheless. And, as I’m sure you’ll all agree, *any* “terrorism” related media in the lead-up to the election just has to be good for cowboy Bush.
Maybe it’s the Michael Moore in me, but I can’t help but cynically wonder if this well timed appearance by Osama might have something to do with the good friendship between the Bush and Bin Laden families… teehee.
But I digress. Conspiracy theories are ultimately for people for think that those who hold power are smarter than they really are…
I’ve never understood what’s wrong with conspiracies per se. All a conspiracy needs is for Morgue & Scott to say “Let’s steal Matt’s pencil and pretend we didn’t.” 🙂
I think Osama wants Bush in power because it serves his interests. He’s playing his own political game.
To reply to Pearce apparently Bill Clintons social welfare spending made America run at a loss for the first time ever. They have friends who had to use their own hard earnt savings for life all so that their tax money would be spent on people who didn’t have the forsight to save money themselves.
Their position was actually more complex than this, but this was what I took to be the guts of it.
I know that this reasoning is flawed in so many ways, but well, who said politics was rational.