Frankly, I’ll take the peace where I can get it. Condi can take all the glory she likes as long as the world gets something that looks like a positive step.
Well, to be more precise, it’s the opportunity for a positive step. Nothing’s actually changed. The onus is still on Israel to start making some changes.
The Palestinian hardliners, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, have both pledged to honour the ceasefire and watch to see what Israel will do. Whether because they’ve been battered by Israel or because they’ve always been open to compromise, it’s a definite claim for progress.
It’s the Israeli hardliners who are the real problem. They are a large political bloc and they’re not satisfied with how things are going. They want greater Israel, regardless of pragmatism or justice. They have enough electoral power to make Sharon’s position fragile.
I figure that Sharon will do his best to keep Israel’s side of the ceasefire until the Gaza pullout is underway. The hardline Israelis are increasingly a thorn in Sharon’s side, and they are expected to protest the pullout with violence. Such violence, set against a wider peace, will allow Sharon to marginalise them. (Of course, once the Gaza pullout is complete, all bets are off.) (And the Gaza pullout itself is a problematic thing, but we won’t go there in this post.)
Of course, the whole thing is fragile – it will only take a couple of whackjobs in Palestine deciding that the ceasefire is a failure and violating it with a bombing to send the whole place spiralling back down. Or some Israeli army nutjob taking the approved levels of oppression and control a few steps too far. And I’m sure there are plenty in positions of authority in the Israeli army and in Hamas/Islamic Jihad who will soon be itching for the resumption of hostilities.
But it’s too easy to be cynical. For all these problems, it is a peace. I hope it lasts, and I wish the people of Israel and Palestine well.
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Now you’ve read that, read this reality check from the always-fascinating Rafah Pundits.
One thought on “Ceasefire in Israel/Palestine conflict”
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I agree that peace is always a good thing…
But peace on whose terms?
I can’t help but feeling that this current ceasefire is just one more step on the road towards Israel’s ultimate victory in the current war of attrition. They’ve managed to destroy and demoralise the Palestinian’s for almost five years now (in this current conflict), and I think Sharon and co see the victory is almost won.
They just need to civer three important opponents.
You’ve mentioned the Israeli right-wing in your post.
They’re now taking the necessary steps to divide and marginalise the Palestinian opposition and world opinion by now playing the peace maker card.
Which is a very easy card to play when you’ve won through force of arms…